Over the past several weeks, you may have seen those colorful signs with neat slogans sticking out of the ground. While watching TV or scrolling you may have encountered those cheerful (or sometimes not so cheerful) ads where a politician talks about their values, or bashes their opponent with lots of scary music and graphics. These are all in anticipation of the upcoming federal election. Today, we will break down the key races for the United States Senate.
If you don’t know what the Senate is, it is part of Congress. Congress is the legislative branch (they make the laws and pass the budget) and is divided into two chambers. One chamber is called the House of Representatives and the other is the Senate. Each state gets two Senators meaning there are 100 overall. One third of all senators are up for re-election in each federal election, which takes place every two years (in even numbered years like 2026, 2028, etc).
You’ve probably heard of Democrats and Republicans. These are political parties. The party with more members has more power to create the laws that fit their ideas. The executive branch, which enforces those laws, is currently under Republican control since Donald Trump is President. While the President is not up for election during this “midterm election” (the ones in years in between Presidential elections every four years) all of the House of Reps and that one-third of the Senators are! Right now Republicans have more in both chambers but if this changes after this election it would potentially create conflict (or hopefully compromise) between Republicans and Democrats. Some people argue this would be a good thing, since more compromise means less extreme ideas. Others say it would be bad because less might get accomplished. Depending on which party wins control of the House and Senate in this election, the way the government functions over the next few years will be very different. .
Currently in the Senate, Democrats hold 47 seats and the Republicans hold 53. Of the 100 overall seats, 35 of these seats are going to be up for re-election. There are also two special races to decide who finishes a term midway through the six years (these were JD Vance and Marco Rubio’s old seats, the current Vice President and Secretary of State). Of those 35 seats up for election, 22 are currently Republican, and 13 are currently held by a Democrat. This will leave 34 Democratic seats and 31 Republican seats as a starting point.
The polling data shows that Democrats have 14 seats that they will very likely win, and Republicans have 16 seats they will likely win. That brings our new totals to 48 seats for the Democrats and 47 seats for the Republicans. The remaining 5 seats are the ones most up for grabs, although the numbers are always shifting. The Democrats would have to win at least four of these five seats to gain control of the Senate, while the Republicans would need to win three of the five seats to maintain control. This is because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans since the Vice President (JD Vance) is Republican. He would cast any tie breaking votes.
With all that being said, here are some key races to watch:
In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan is running for re-election against a new Democratic challenger, Mary Pelota, in a very cutthroat race. Alaska is very independent, leaning slightly Republican, and it is always a close race. However, there has been recent controversy due to another candidate with a similar name: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. The Republican Party has accused this of being a Democratic trick so that Republican voters would vote for the wrong Dan Sullivan, wasting their vote. The Trump administration has filed a lawsuit to make the election results invalid if the current Republican senator Dan S. Sullivan loses.
In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst is retiring from her position. Republican Ashley Hinson is running against Democrat Josh Turek and Libertarian Thomas Laehn. Iowa is a Republican state, but actually very moderate. Ernst was a moderate Republican, and Hinson has more conservative values and doesn’t have much recognition. The agricultural state of Iowa has been impacted by Trump’s tariffs and increasing production costs and gas prices, causing some voters to be uncertain and even some to lean more towards the Democratic Party.
In Maine, Republican Susan Collins is an example of an anti-MAGA Republican. This is a very close race in the moderate conservative state of Maine. She is going against the Democratic nominee Troy Jackson. Graham Platner was the original nominee until recent controversies due to assault and intimidation allegations from a past girlfriend. In a recent poll by Marist University, Democrat Jackson received 49% of votes, while Republican Collins only got 47%. Multiple other polls also had the Democratic candidate winning. The race is well within the margin of error.
In Texas, current Republican Senator John Cornyn is running for a fifth term, but he was in a tight primary (that’s when each party picks their candidate to run in the general election) against the state Attorney General Ken Paxton (also Republican). The Texas government is primarily Republican, but the voters are surprisingly trending more towards the middle recently. Paxton, the conservative challenger, then defeated Cornyn to become the Republican candidate and is now facing Democrat nominee James Talarico. In a recent survey by CNN, the Democrat James Talarico leads 49% to 43% against the Republican representative Ken Paxton, but polls in this race vary widely.
In Georgia, current Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is now facing off against the Republican representative Mike Collins. The Republican Party sees Georgia as a state that they can flip, as Ossoff is the only incumbent (that means person currently in office) Democrat who is running for another term in a state that was won by Doland Trump in 2024. Ossoff is going viral for his direct clashes with Collins, his aggressive critiques against the Trump administration, and his social media clips. His campaign is proving successful, as in a recent poll by the University of Georgia, Ossoff led by 8%. Many other polls also had similar results.
In conclusion, it is always good to know about what is going on with our government. These Senate races can have great impacts on our government and the power balance between the Republican and Democratic parties. This can lead to more efficient government, more gridlock and partisanship, or a range of other outcomes. The exciting news is that we get to watch and see what happens. We should all aim to be educated and informed even though we are so young!